It’s been a worthwhile early season right here on the Primer as this column has posted an unimaginable 13-2 document by means of three weeks, together with an ideal 5-Zero final week. The books are sharpening up their efficiency algorithms, so let’s check out my favourite edge performs for this week’s slate of CFB video games. I’m going to attempt to hold the write ups to 2 paragraphs so I can get the article out faster since these strains transfer quickly upon launch, and so they did not come out this week till 8:30 PM EST.
Kellen Mond – Texas A&M – 270.5 O/U
Texas A&M marched into Tuscaloosa to tackle Alabama final week and have been within the sport for the primary quarter and a half because of Ainias Smith’s fancy sideline footwork on a swing go he broke down the left sideline. Nevertheless that fleeting second rapidly expired as Alabama went on to hold a 52-spot whereas the Aggies stalled out. Nonetheless, when throwing in opposition to air Kellen Mond unleashed 44 passes for 318 yards and a 3-1 ratio. The stat-line is an ideal instance of what can occur when a sub-par QB is given 20 minutes of straight-up forestall protection.
In 2019 Mond beat the 270.5 passing mark solely as soon as in his final 9 video games of the 12 months. He didn’t play Florida, so we don’t have an apples-to-apples comp from final 12 months, nonetheless he additionally didn’t clear the 270 bar in opposition to suspect defenses similar to South Carolina, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Arkansas. Throw in his 189 within the opening week in opposition to Vandy and that makes in 10 out of his final 12 weeks that he bested that mark. Hop on this over-reaction to final week’s aberration and smash Fanduel’s Sportsbook on this gentle line.
Stetson Bennett – Georgia – 257.5 O/U
When opening week beginning QB De’Wan Mathis stumbled throughout himself in his first style of collegiate motion, former walk-on Stetson Bennett answered the decision to finish 20-of-29 passes for 211 yards and a 1-Zero ratio to guide the Bulldogs to a 37-10 victory over Arkansas. Bennett continued his Lin-Sanity-esque run in opposition to Auburn as he defeated the Tigers in his first begin, finishing 17-of-28 passes for 211 yards and a 2-Zero ratio. Bennett restricted sacks, accomplished ⅔ of his passes and has been sacked solely twice up to now. In brief, a stable, workman-like efficiency from a feel-good place-holder who’s one bad-half from getting pulled in favor of J.T. Daniels.
The query is when does that bad-half come? It might very nicely be this week that Stets-anity comes again to re-ality. Tennesse returns eight starters from their protection that allowed 21.7 PPG and 194 yards passing per sport final 12 months. They held Mizzou to 211 passing yards final week and with a Georgia protection permitting solely 248 yards of complete offense per sport, HC Kirby Smart remains to be inclined to grind down opponents with lengthy drives. Backside line is that Stetson Bennett is on borrowed-time and HC Jeremy Pruitt’s Volunteers are a adequate outfit to show Cinderella’s stagecoach right into a pumpkin.
Terrace Marshall – LSU – 80.5 O/U
Missouri hasn’t coated themselves in glory throughout new HC Eli Drinkwitz’ first two video games, permitting 38 and 35 factors respectively in blowout losses to Alabama and Tennessee. The Crimson Tide had two beginning wideouts eclipsed this week’s 80,5 yard mark, as Jaylen Waddle exploded for 134 and Devonta Smith reached the 89 yard plateau. Marshall went for Eight receptions, 122 yards and two touchdowns in LSU’s opening week victory, and adopted up that displaying with two catches for 67 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-7 rout of Vanderbilt.
Miles Brennan has an O/U of 309.5 this week, which is proportionately loads larger than the 80.5 Marshall has to hit. As LSU’s clear-cut WR1, if this sport is remotely shut he’ll virtually actually high 80 yards receiving. I’m fairly Below heavy this week, so i’m taking Marshall’s Over for the reason that solely manner I don’t see him delivering is that if Missouri will get completely throttled by LSU, and even then Marshall nonetheless has an excellent shot of masking this cheap Over.
Kyle Pitts – Florida – 87.5 O/U
In Week 1 of Florida’s season Kyle Pitts eviscerated the Texas A&M secondary for Eight catches on 10 targets for 170 yards and 4 touchdowns. That efficiency got here in opposition to a Mississippi protection that at the moment ranks lifeless final in defensive yards per play and dutifully rolled out the red-zone carpet for Kentucky final week who dropped 41 factors and 559 yards of complete offense on the hapless Rebels.
Final week Florida comfortably defeated South Carolina 38-24 the place Pitts had one other standout efficiency, however extra in step with his 2019 stat line as he grabbed four-of-eight targets for 57 yards and two touchdowns in opposition to the Gamecocks. Moreover a 108 yard explosion in a 42-28 loss to LSU, Pitts’ second-best efficiency was a 78 yard effort in a 24-17 loss to Georgia.
Until Florida is taking part in a generational dangerous protection or a group succesful to outscoring them from the opening bell, Pitts is an exceedingly dangerous play at 87.5. Draft Kings posted him on the similar quantity final week and he missed the mark by 31 yards despite the fact that he had a extremely good sport. That’s life as a collegiate tight finish although, 100-yard video games don’t simply develop on timber…neither do 88-yard ones. Taking the Below 87.5 back-to-back weeks till the books smarten up and drop it.
Isaiah Spiller – 65.5 – O/U
Anybody who watched the primary two video games of the season is aware of that Ainias Smith is the Alpha Canine within the A&M operating again room. Final week in opposition to Alabama, Smith rushed 5 instances for 29 yards whereas additionally catching six passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns in opposition to the vaunted Alabama protection. For his half, Spiller rushed 11 instances for 25 yards whereas being a whole non-factor within the passing sport. The underside line is that Spiller has been relegated to backup standing, as he solely acquired 19 touches within the first two video games.
I discussed it final week, however the level bears repeating – in 2019 Spiller popped off in opposition to inferior opponents and wilted in opposition to the elevated SEC competitors. That was again when Ainias Smith was taking part in slot receiver and Spiller had the beginning job all to himself. 9 carries per sport will not be going to be a major sufficient speeding output to supply the 66 yards required to win this prop because the Aggies face-off in opposition to SEC East favourite Florida this week.