We coated the basics of why Watson is unhappy with the franchise that drafted him and what his choices are going ahead, however let’s go deeper on what would occur if the Texans commerce their star quarterback.
What complicates this for the Texans?
Watson has a no-trade clause in his contract. This implies Watson has a big say in his vacation spot, as a result of he might select to not waive the clause.
How uncommon is a no-trade clause?
The clause is just not frequent and is often executed for quarterbacks solely, though there are a number of exceptions. Amongst quarterbacks, Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Jimmy Garoppolo (however solely in 2021), Russell Wilson and Tom Brady have no-trade inclusions constructed into their present contracts. Cardinals huge receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald, who negotiated their very own contracts in Arizona, even have no-trade clauses.
Does this imply Watson has all of the leverage?
Whereas it would seem to be Watson has leverage as a result of he might primarily select which group he goes to, finally, the Texans do not need to commerce him. Watson signed a contract extension in September that goes by the 2025 season.
Basic supervisor Nick Caserio might discover a number of commerce provides he is proud of and current Watson with these choices. But when Watson would not wish to go to these locations, he might have to remain and play or sit out.
The Texans additionally might work with Watson and his agent to provide you with an inventory of groups he would conform to be traded to; Caserio might then work off that roll to assist keep away from issues down the street.
In fact, if it will get to the purpose Watson is lacking exercises (if these even occur in individual) or coaching camp, the Texans may resolve it is higher to get one thing in return for the quarterback.
Underneath the collective bargaining settlement, the group might select to positive Watson as much as $50,000 for every day he misses throughout coaching camp. In contrast to the earlier settlement, the fines can’t be waived.
And due to the language in Watson’s contract — customary in offers executed by the Texans — if Watson misses necessary exercises, there’s an opportunity that might play into whether or not Watson has to pay again his signing bonus.
What has modified previously week?
Since I wrote last week, there have been extra stories about how sad Watson is, however the quarterback nonetheless hasn’t mentioned something.
Most significantly, at the very least publicly, he hasn’t demanded a commerce.
On Sunday, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported a number of folks in and across the group imagine Watson has performed his remaining snap with the group. A supply additionally advised ESPN the Texans have had inner conversations about commerce companions and what their quarterback place would seem like with out Watson.
Later within the week, group CEO and chairman Cal McNair advised the Houston Chronicle he had “linked over texts” with Watson and mentioned the Texans “need [Watson] within the loop and a part of the method” as Houston searches for its subsequent head coach.
Some followers are getting annoyed with McNair, and one individual organized a protest, encouraging followers to stroll the half-mile from Lefty’s, the cheesesteak franchise of which Watson is a minority proprietor, to NRG Stadium. On Monday, Watson requested followers to not protest on his behalf.
“Though I’m humbled I ask that whoever is organizing the march cancel for the sake of public security,” Watson acknowledged in a tweet. “[COVID-19] is spreading at a excessive fee & I do not need any followers to unnecessarily expose themselves to an infection.”
A small group did participate.
Watson did tweet a photo of himself in a automobile on Tuesday with the caption, “I been making an attempt to have some persistence, I advised my momma she ought to pray on it.”
Would hiring the top coach Watson needs repair this?
McNair didn’t seek the advice of Watson earlier than the Texans employed their normal supervisor, which is the place a few of Watson’s frustration comes from, so there may be the hope that together with Watson within the strategy of hiring a head coach would repair this.
For instance, would hiring Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, whom Watson has publicly acknowledged his admiration for, restore this relationship? Keep in mind, the Texans didn’t request to interview Bieniemy till after the stories got here out that Watson was sad with the method the Texans took to rent Caserio. It must be famous that Caserio is now operating the head-coaching search, and the request to interview Bieniemy was made after he took over.
In accordance with ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, the Texans are taking a tough have a look at Bieniemy, with Caserio “doing thorough homework on the candidate.” In accordance with Fowler, Houston’s request is just not an empty one, as Bieniemy, who interviewed Monday, shall be strongly thought-about.
Together with Bieniemy, the group has introduced it additionally has interviewed — since Caserio was employed — Indianapolis Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, Buffalo Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier and Baltimore Ravens assistant head coach David Culley.
Whereas hiring a coach Watson favors definitely can be a step in the appropriate path, it appears unlikely this one transfer would restore the quarterback’s relationship with the Texans.
If the Texans did try and commerce Watson, how would that work?
If Watson does demand a commerce — both privately or publicly — Caserio might start fielding provides from different groups.
On SportsCenter this week, ESPN’s Chris Mortensen mentioned the organizations he has talked to that could be inquisitive about Watson said they anticipate there to be “double-digit groups” keen to make a commerce to amass the quarterback.
What would a commerce imply for the Texans’ wage cap?
Any commerce of Watson will carry a cost of $5.6 million in useless cash for the Texans. Due to the way in which his contract is structured (he’s technically within the remaining 12 months of his rookie deal, earlier than his four-year contract extension kicks in), his cap cost for 2021 is just $15.94 million. As compared, that quantity jumps to $40.four million in 2022.
The rationale will probably be so expensive for the Texans is as a result of they paid a good portion of the take care of Watson’s $27 million signing bonus, which will get prorated. Groups do that to assist them reap the benefits of the cap in future years.
If the Texans commerce Watson, the yearly proration accelerates in opposition to the Texans as a useless cash cost. The useless cash on the contract is $21.6 million, which is the $5.four million signing bonus prorated from 2021 to 2024.
This implies the group that trades for Watson is not answerable for the prorated portion of his signing bonus, simply his base wage. So, his cap fees from 2021 to 2025 can be $10.54 million, $35 million, $37 million, $32 million and $32 million. The ultimate two years of the contract should not assured, but when Watson is taking part in this properly at that time, a $32 million wage shall be thought-about a cut price for an elite quarterback.
As a result of the $10.54 million in wage can be paid by the group buying and selling for Watson, buying and selling the quarterback would add solely $5.6 million in useless cash. In fact, along with that useless cash cost, the Texans additionally must pay one other quarterback, and that will not come low-cost.
The useless cash is probably going solely value taking up for the Texans in the event that they discover a group keen to commerce them a participant (or gamers by way of draft picks and gamers on rookie contracts) that equal the productiveness they imagine they will get from Watson.
In any other case, in case you’re making an attempt to compete, that is some huge cash to have on the books for somebody not taking part in for the Texans in 2021.
Watson additionally might provide to return the assured cash to the group, which might make it simpler for the Texans to facilitate a commerce.
Do the Texans have numerous salary-cap room?
No. Houston is greater than $18 million over the projected wage cap for 2021. In fact, it is the money spent to this point that issues extra to the Texans proper now.
To assist, Caserio has a number of contracts he can work with, akin to slicing operating David Johnson (which might save $6.9 million), linebacker Benardrick McKinney ($7 million), operating again Duke Johnson ($5.1 million) and guard Zach Fulton ($three million) or restructuring contracts for huge receiver Brandin Cooks or middle Nick Martin.
Why cannot Watson simply demand a commerce, much like NBA gamers?
Texans followers do not need to look far for an instance of a famous person demanding a commerce. Simply final week, Houston Rockets star James Harden lastly received his want and was traded to the Brooklyn Nets.
The leverage Watson does have, to make a transfer like Harden, is that he’s a top-flight quarterback. However in any other case, the way in which the 2 leagues function with regard to the cap are very completely different. NBA contracts are usually shorter than most NFL contracts (together with Watson’s), which permits for extra motion. As a result of Watson signed a four-year contract extension, he misplaced numerous leverage.
The largest distinction, in fact, is that NBA contracts are totally assured and, for probably the most half, NFL contracts should not. Typically within the NBA, groups are keen to tackle undesirable contracts within the quick time period as a way to unlock cap house so as to add belongings in future years. Within the NFL, these gamers are often minimize.
The truth is, the closest an NFL group has come to an NBA-style commerce is when the Texans traded a second-round decide in 2017 so the Cleveland Browns would tackle the rest of Brock Osweiler’s contract.
There are also fewer gamers within the NBA, which implies buying and selling for a star participant could make a right away impression. With the roster sizes within the NFL, it is uncommon that one participant (outdoors of a star quarterback) is so dominant he calls for a commerce and will get to find out the place he goes.
In fact, a participant of Watson’s caliber may very well be the exception to the rule.
Is there the same state of affairs we are able to examine this to?
Not that I can consider. Jalen Ramsey not too long ago compelled a commerce — he has the identical agent as Watson — however (1) Ramsey is just not a quarterback, and (2) the Jacksonville Jaguars had not but signed him to a contract extension.
This can be a distinctive state of affairs in Houston, and there shall be lots of people across the NFL because it performs out.