NFL

Greatest Tremendous Bowl LV bets at U.S. sportsbooks

The Tremendous Bowl, America’s favourite sport to wager, is right here.

Over the subsequent two weeks, a whole lot of tens of millions of {dollars} — probably a billion — might be wager on the Tremendous Bowl with U.S. sportsbooks, which are actually taking motion in 20 states and the District of Columbia. Throughout championship weekend, 30 million sports activities betting transactions had been tracked within the jurisdictions with on-line wagering, in line with main geolocation compliance agency GeoComply and Aware Gaming, a corporation devoted to bettering accountable gaming practices. In Michigan and Virginia, the most recent two states to launch on-line sports activities betting markets, 400,000 sportsbook accounts had been lively over championship weekend.

Much more might be in play over the subsequent two weeks, when Individuals wager on every thing from the coin flip to the colour of Gatorade dumped on the profitable coach to the MVP’s postgame acceptance speech. Cash might be on the road for all of it.

From the most important bets to the wackiest wagers, ESPN Chalk will replace it proper right here in our Tremendous Bowl betting pocket book.

Present Tremendous Bowl odds (at Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill):

Chiefs -3 (-120)
Complete: 56.5


The early motion

• There was a slight distinction of opinion on the opening line at sportsbooks. The consensus opening quantity was Kansas Metropolis -3, however a number of sportsbooks, together with the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, went a bit of larger, opening at Chiefs -3.5.

“Three weeks in a row now, the place we opened up certainly one of these Buccaneers video games, the sharp guys simply flooded us with Buccaneers bets,” mentioned John Murray, government director of the SuperBook.

By the Monday after the matchup was set, the road had settled at Kansas Metropolis -3, with added vig to wager the favored Chiefs.

• Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill reported taking a $120,000 wager on the Chiefs -3 (-120) lower than 24 hours after the road was posted.

• Within the first 24 hours at DraftKings, 77% of the point-spread bets and 78% of the cash wager on the purpose unfold was on the Chiefs.

• The over/underneath, which opened as excessive as 57.5, had been trimmed right down to 56.5 on early motion.

The important thing quantity: 3

• Three is the commonest margin of victory and therefore thought-about probably the most key quantity when betting on the NFL. Together with the playoffs, 14.3% of video games this season had a margin of victory of three. Three was the commonest margin of victory within the 2020-21 season.

• Forty-one video games had closing traces of -Three this season, together with the playoffs. Groups favored by three went 25-16 straight-up and 20-21 towards the unfold this season.

• In keeping with ESPN Stats & Data’s database, 1,569 video games have featured some extent unfold of -Three within the Tremendous Bowl period. The profitable proportion for the favorites in these video games: 58.4%. The favorites’ profitable proportion towards the unfold in these video games: 48.9%.

• Seven Tremendous Bowls have had a closing level unfold of -3. The favorites in these video games are 4-Three straight-up and towards the unfold.

• 5 Tremendous Bowls have been determined by precisely three factors.

• “I am unable to think about it going to 2.5,” Murray of the SuperBook mentioned. “I may very well be mistaken about that, however appears loopy to me. Kansas Metropolis was thought-about the perfect workforce within the league the entire manner. I am unable to consider it might go underneath 3. To go to again to three.5, it might simply take bets from the correct folks, probably the most revered folks. And so they might transfer it proper again up, if sure teams that we actually respect got here in and laid 3, we’d say, ‘OK, let’s return to three.5, as a result of that is what we thought it must be to start with.'”

Odds & ends

• Nevada Gaming Management started tracing the betting on the Tremendous Bowl in 1991. Since then, the state’s sportsbooks have suffered a internet loss on the Tremendous Bowl solely twice: 1995 Chargers-49ers and 2008 Giants-Patriots.

• It is generally known as the bookmaker’s dream: The favourite wins the sport, eliminating all of the money-line bets on the underdog, however would not cowl the unfold for the betting public, which just about all the time gravitates to the chalk. It has occurred 5 occasions in Tremendous Bowls, most just lately in 2009 when the favored Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) defeated the Arizona Cardinals 27-23.

Bookmakers anticipate to be rooting for it once more this. “That is all the time the Tremendous Bowl dream,” Murray of the SuperBook mentioned.

• Johnny Avello, sportsbook director for DraftKings, mentioned his store was dealing with a $1 million legal responsibility on the Buccaneers in his odds to win the Tremendous Bowl.

• The biggest bets on the Tremendous Bowl are usually within the million-dollar vary and are sometimes positioned by on line casino VIPs, not skilled sports activities bettors. Bookmakers don’t make a behavior of taking their largest bets from their sharpest prospects.

• The custom of dumping Gatorade on the Tremendous Bowl-winning coach dates again 35 years, and other people like to wager on it. Orange has been the commonest coloration, used 33% of the time since Tremendous Bowl XL, together with with the Chiefs final 12 months.

• Tremendous Bowl favorites are 35-19 straight-up and 27-25-2 towards the unfold.

• There have been 26 overs, 26 unders and one push within the Tremendous Bowl (no over/underneath on Tremendous Bowl I).

• The coin flip has landed on tails 29 occasions and heads 25 occasions.

*ESPN Stats and Data researcher Kevin Haswell contributed to this text.

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